Greetings everyone this season!

Letter to the President and DOTC Secretary

Open Letter to His Excellency Benigno Simeon Aquino III, 

President of the Philippines

and Honorable Joseph Emilio Abaya, Secretary

Department of Transportation and Communications

Dear President Aquino and Secretary Abaya:

Between 1989-1990, we began the advocacy for a Philippine safety agency that led to the passage of the Republic Act to create the NTSB - National Transportation Safety Board.

Shown below is the reconstruction of the briefing on the need to operationalize the National Transportation Safety Board. We revised the briefing over and over again. The updating of the voluminous data on accidents over land, to include actuarial and statistical computations of the probabilities of new accidents for extended, extrapolated periods, is not included since it would be too tasking for us and we do not have the resources nor are equipped any longer to undertake the job.

In the past, we were fortunate to be working with a foreign counterpart - the Harris Corporation Florida USA, a conglomerate with over 100 companies under its wings, that allowed us to opportunity to campaign for the privatization of the then Air Transportation Office's ATS (Air Traffic Service) as well as to push for the creation of the Philippines' transport safety agency.

- Original proponents for National Transport Safety Board 1994
Read more from here.

Global Geohazards System

Crisis Mapping

In 2008 we determined to create a full-function Crisis Mapping project. This was borne out of the persistent eruption of hostilities in Southern Philippines between both communist - Islamist groups on one side and the government on the other. Fresh from the experience at confronting an incorrigible troublemaker such as the Juma'a Abu Sayyap, or more popularly known as Abu Sayyaf, we resolved to push stakeholders to join in formulating the Philippine conflicts crisis map.

This is modeled after the U.S.-Euro academe's successful crime and peacekeeping mapping efforts that had led to wide acceptance and invited broad-based support from as many sectors and as many countries as possible.

After all, the value of life is such that people and institutions, states and combines will pay as high a price as possible for the safety of both individuals and enclaves of people.

Supersites (eathquake sites) of the world scientific community has a interactive map showing the areas where big earthquakes are predicted to happen. Click the image to visit Supersites:

Safety on the Road

Recently, one of the buses of Don Mariano Transit figured in an accident where it is reported that 18 people died (see photo below).

Photo Credit: Manila Bulletin, December 16, 2013 by Michael Varcas

The attention of everyone, especially our government officials, is most earnestly called towards past proposals, suggestions, recommendations, encouragement, admonitions, for making transport safety a key concern of the public sector.

Speeding and Bad Road Structure

Yahoo: CCTV shows Don Mariano Transit speeding before tragedy

From yahoo.com, a video shows that the killer bus owned by the Don Mariano Transit that took 18 lives of its passengers was on a speeding frenzy prior to the accident, the report says.

The authorities reviewing the video say the bus was running at more than 100 kilometers per hour while at the point of the accident the speed limit was only 80 kilometers per hour.

Bad road design and structure in RP

A comment by "A Yahoo User" on the video sourced from ANC, says thus:

if one where to look closely at the footage, one can see that there was water in the path of the bus. What does this mean? I believe that the swerving may be the cause of hydroplaning.that and the speed of the bus i believe could be the main causes of the bus falling

By design, the coupling of speeding vehicles and bad road designs and structures that are common in poor or developing countries are a mortal combination. Compounded with dilapidated vehicle features and parts - that as claimed by the Skyway administration was evident in the Don Mariano Transit bus unit's totally bald tires with treads wholly worn away - the accident was bound to happen.

In the face of burgeoning mishaps not only in the Metro Manila but in other areas of the country due to accidents like the Don Mariano Transit bus' plunge into the netherworld, government must be concerned not only with the implementation of laws, rules and regulations similar to the Congress-Senate approved National Transportation Safety Board Act but also the strictness of parameters for approving and performance-assessing the quality of the country's road network.

As our advocacy has pointed out in the past, in Tokyo, Japan, it was observed that a speeding car in a heavy downpour of rain at night, in a toll bridge, appeared to be travelling on almost dry road that was clear even to the average eye aided by vehicle lights. This is reportedly due to the fact that the structure of Tokyo's roads is characterized by multiple layers.

What is seen at the surface is only the topmost layer of the road structure. Beneath that top layer are sub-layers that are punctured with holes that gradually increase in size as the layer goes father down. At the bottom-most part of these layers water is presumably collected and diverted into pipes that go directly to storm drains.

Privatizing road network construction

Jailing bad regulators

In the Philippines, to build this kind of road would almost be an impossibility, unless road construction, like in Japan, is mostly given over to private companies who then in turn will just collect tolls from the users to be able to recover their investments. More  >  >

Reissuing call for Renewing Paradigms

Eastern Visayas: Hardest hit area during Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)

As earlier stated in this site: "The level of confidence with which government addresses the challenges of disaster forecasting is extremely low.

"It appears that even being able to obtain certain satellite data about a tropical cyclone’s strength, and the inevitable accompanying storm surges as in New York and other parts of USA very recently, due to inferiority the PAGASA cannot shout out its warnings to the public loud enough so the people can feel the poignant threat of what is going to hit them and at what point in time in the near future."

Forecasting for the future with more confidence

If you warn them and they keep on sinning and refuse to repent, they will die in their sins. But you will have saved your life because you did what you were told to do. If good people turn bad and don't listen to my warning, they will die. If you did not warn them of the consequences, then they will die in their sins. Their previous good deeds won't help them, and I will hold you responsible, demanding your blood for theirs. But if you warn them and they repent, they will live, and you will have saved your own life, too. . . Some of them will listen, but some will ignore you, for they are rebels.

<< Ezekiel 3:18-22 >>

For I was hungry, and you didn't feed me. I was thirsty, and you didn't give me anything to drink. 43 I was a stranger, and you didn't invite me into your home. I was naked, and you gave me no clothing. I was sick and in prison, and you didn't visit me.' 44 "Then they will reply, 'Lord, when did we ever see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or sick or in prison, and not help you?' 45 And he will answer, 'I assure you, when you refused to help the least of these my brothers and sisters, you were refusing to help me.'

<< Matthew 25:41Matthew 25:42-45 Matthew 25:46 >>

Self-doubting prophecy

For nearly five years ago today, we have been goading the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to enhance its satellite capability instead of simply getting hand-me-down issuances from UN OOSA (United Nations Outer Space Affairs and the NOAA (United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the other geospatial information and intelligence agencies all over the world.

At a certain point in time around the period of the occurrence of the devastation by tropical storm Ketsana (Ondoy) in the Philippines, the PAGASA was clamoring for the purchase and installation of its doppler radar system, an outmoded and unreliable system for weather forecasting.

In 2010, all throughout the government circuit, the company of Mr. Philip King called AAA, went on a lecture-presentation effort to sell the sensing and image capture technology developed by a Malaysian scientist and technology specialist who was also engaged in a similar high technology, extensive venture for the government of Canada, among other countries.

Had the Department of Science and Technology considered using a network of sensing stations with clear-photo capture capability on a 1-camera-per-station (or possibly a cluster of cameras), weather forecasting in the country, aided with charity hand-outs from NOAA, UNOOSA, the European Union, among other satellite capable agencies, will definitely be more precise at the same time vivid and viewable in real time.

It was foreseen in this site that absolutely nothing will be allowed by Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) to block its path. As early as the morning of the raging of this typhoon that PAGASA decided to merely moonsoon rains, it was already the consensus among the advocates that started this site that many people will die by Ketsana (Ondoy).

What kind of weather forecasting transpired during Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) was that by 10:00 AM up to 12:00 noon, PAGASA continued to refuse to declare even a Storm Signal No. 1 for Metro Manila and Rizal Province even at the height of severe rainfall, destructive and killer floods hitting entire subdivisions in Marikina and parts of Rizal, large areas in the urban center of the national capital.

In real time, it was being recommended strongly by this site that a state of calamity and state of emergency already be declared by the Office of the President.

When the media started reporting, albeit belatedly, that some people were reportedly getting killed by Ondoy, it may have dawned on PAGASA that their forecast needed to be amended. Nearing nightfall when panic and frenzy hit the public due to massive negative reports reaching media and feedback filtering through to the lower and highest levels of government, PAGASA relented and finally announced Signal No. 1. It was too late, Malacanang was then preparing to announce a serious state of calamity for the entire Metro Manila including parts of Rizal.

Hundreds died in Provident Village in Marikina. Hundreds died inside a popular Mall at the Riverside commercial complex built beside the huge Marikina River. Still hundreds others were swept by raging waters or seriously injured by stampeding objects and died instantly or were killed by being in the flood and unable to get help for their injuries.